← Idea market
Fitness911,700 searches / mo

Run training plans

A plan that adapts when you miss a run.

Opportunity score

6,931 / 10k

Worth a weekend. Demand is real, execution decides it.

Rank

#31

Gap

C

  • Demand

    100

    911,700 contestable searches a month across 25 related keywords.

  • Momentum

    38

    Last three months ran down 14.1% against the three before, seasonality smoothed out.

  • Competition gap

    17

    26 real products rank on page one for this, ad competition 0.13.

  • Crowd

    46

    6 head-to-head rankings from builders, counted at partial weight until 20.

  • Willingness to pay

    69

    Advertisers pay $4.25 a click for this search — some money moves here.

What this score is based on

evidence checked 9/27/2026

  • Search demand verified against Google Ads data
  • 12 months of search history
  • 25 related keywords clustered
  • No firsthand pain signals collected yet
  • 26 competitors analyzed from page-one results
  • 6 crowd rankings from builders

Search demand comes from Google Ads data via DataForSEO and refreshes daily. Competitors come from a live scan of page-one results. Crowd input comes from builders ranking ideas 1-2-3 on the market.

Keyword cluster

25 keywords · 911,700 searches a month combined

Demand counts the whole cluster: 911,700 searches a month across every relevant way people look for this problem. The intent label on each keyword tells you how close that searcher is to wanting software.

KeywordIntentSearchesCPCAd comp.
marathon training planunclear90,500$6.770.09
marathon training programwants a tool90,500$6.770.09
training schedule for marathonunclear90,500$6.770.09
marathon training guidewants an article90,500$6.770.09
marathon running training planunclear90,500$6.770.09
marathon training regimenunclear90,500$6.770.09
half marathon training planunclear60,500$3.200.24
training plan to run a half marathonunclear60,500$3.200.24
5k training planunclear18,100$2.590.16
5k training programwants a tool18,100$2.590.16
5k training scheduleunclear18,100$2.590.16
5km training planunclear18,100$2.590.16
5k run training planunclear18,100$2.590.16
5k race training planunclear18,100$2.590.16
5k marathon training planunclear18,100$2.590.16
10k training planunclear12,100$2.650.21
couch to 5k training planunclear12,100$1.760.05
10km training planunclear12,100$2.650.21
10k training scheduleunclear12,100$2.650.21
couch to 5k training scheduleunclear12,100$1.760.05
couch to 5k training programwants a tool12,100$1.760.05
10k run training planunclear12,100$2.650.21
10k training programwants a tool12,100$2.650.21
10k race training planunclear12,100$2.650.21
10 k training planunclear12,100$2.650.21

CPC is what an advertiser pays Google for one click on that phrase — a rough price tag on how valuable the visitor is. Ad comp. runs 0 to 1 and is how full the ad auction is: near 1 means advertisers are fighting over it (money is there, but ranking is hard), near 0 means almost nobody bids.

Who has the problem

Runners using static training plans for races like marathons or 5Ks encounter significant disruption when a run is missed. Manually adapting these plans is complex and often leads to uncertainty about how to proceed effectively with their training regimen.

Who experiences it
A runner preparing for a marathon, half marathon, 10k, or 5k race.
When it happens
They miss a scheduled run due to unforeseen circumstances, making their existing training plan instantly outdated.
How often
It recurs every time a run is missed, which can be multiple times during a typical training cycle.
What they do today
They manually attempt to adjust their static 'marathon training plan' or '5k training schedule' printed from an online guide, often guessing how to re-sequence runs without overtraining or falling behind.

Read off 25 search phrases, 9/27/2026.

Why now

Demand is cooling; build only if you have an angle the incumbents lack.

  • Searches are down 45% year over year

    9,977 a month twelve months ago → 5,442 now for "run training plans".

  • Cooling 14% over the last quarter

    Last three months of searches against the three before them.

  • Peaks in October

    Demand swings 312% across the year, so ship roughly two months before October.

  • Advertisers pay $4.25 a click here

    Buying this intent instead of ranking for it would run roughly $1,162,418 a month — money is already chasing these searches.

  • 4 real products on page one

    Alongside 20 articles and reference pages, which is room a focused tool can take.

Search data

verified · dataforseo:us · refreshed 9/27/2026

Lead keyword
run training plans
Cluster volume
911,700 / mo
across 25 related keywords; lead phrase is 5,400 / mo
CPC
$4.25
what an advertiser pays for one click here
Ad competition
0.13
0-1 scale: barely any advertisers bidding

Opportunity score 6,931 = 40% contestable search demand (911,700 a month across 25 keywords) + 25% how open the competition still is (26 products on page one) + 15% momentum (last three months vs the three before, capped so one bucketed month can't swing it) + 10% willingness to pay ($4.25 a click) + 10% crowd rankings (Elo 1516, 6 head-to-heads, weighted by how many votes exist). Anything we can't measure is dropped and the rest re-weighted, so a blank signal never counts as an average one. Search data refreshes daily from Google Ads via DataForSEO.

Monthly searches for "run training plans"

6 votes · demand from dataforseo:us, updated 9/27/2026

9,977
Sep 25
8,163
Oct 25
5,442
Nov 25
6,651
Dec 25
2,923
Jan 26
2,419
Feb 26
3,628
Mar 26
5,442
Apr 26
6,651
May 26
3,628
Jun 26
4,434
Jul 26
5,442
Aug 26

Peak 9,977 · latest 5,442 · low 2,419 searches a month

Google reports monthly volume in fixed buckets (…27,100 · 33,100 · 40,500 · 49,500), so steady months land on the exact same number. Weekly data isn't published.

This chart tracks the single lead phrase. The demand score uses the whole cluster of 25 related phrases (911,700 searches a month), listed below.

Revenue potential

estimate, not a promise

Priced and converted as a freemium consumer app — the funnel below changes with that model, because a freemium consumer app and a B2B tool convert nothing alike.

MRR by month 12

$5,513 – $33,533

276–1,677 paying users · +33–202 new a month at 7% churn

Year-one run rate

$66,158 – $402,392

the month-12 number annualised — you earn less than this during the ramp

Price

$20/mo

same price as the business model below

24-month projection

log scale

Month 24 · hover to scrub

Slow build $6,274Good execution $41,149Breakout $641,229

The two solid lines are the range above: a slow build and good execution on a slice of this demand. The dashed line is the breakout — you become the default answer for this problem, take roughly a quarter of the intent, convert far better because people arrive already sold, and churn halves. That's the outcome worth chasing, and it's about $641,229 a month by month 24 (62,517 paying users). Most ideas land on the bottom line; the point of the chart is that the ceiling isn't the estimate.

How we got there

  • 911,700 cluster searches a month, 1.6x for app stores and word of mouth.
  • You reach 0.9-5.8% of that, scaled by ad competition 0.13.
  • 12% of visitors sign up, 2% of those pay. Freemium consumer: roughly 1-3% of free users ever pay, so this needs volume.
  • That wins 33-202 new subscribers a month. Stack 12 months of that against 7% monthly churn and you're holding 276-1,677 paying users by month 12.
  • Price $20/mo, taken from the business model below.

Who already builds this

4 real products · 20 articles, explainers and store pages · 12 read in depth · scanned daily on Google for "run training plans"

4 real products own this search. Everything else on page one is a roundup, review post or explainer, listed separately below.

  • #2Stillirun

    Ranks #2 on Google for "marathon training plan".

    Pricing Free

    Strengths Provides 14 free marathon training plans for beginner, intermediate, and advanced runners with detailed descriptions and direct links.

    Weaknesses Does not offer personalized training plans or direct coaching interaction, relying instead on a compilation of external free plans.

    ~176,892 organic visits a month (estimate)

    stillirun.org · from live Google results · verified Aug 18

    source page
  • #3Strava

    Ranks #3 on Google for "run training plans".

    Pricing Subscribe to Runna; Canada Subscribers pay CA$14.99/month or CA$99.99/year; Family Plan CA$169.99/year; Strava + Runna Plan CA$199.99/year

    Strengths Offers various running plans (5k, 10k, Half Marathon, Marathon, Custom) through a partnership with Runna, including a free 2-week trial.

    Weaknesses Pricing details are complex and localized, requiring a subscription to a separate service (Runna) for the training plans, with no direct USD monthly price for the plans provided.

    ~493,059 organic visits a month (estimate)

    strava.com · from live Google results · verified Aug 18

    source page
  • #7Nonetorun

    Ranks #7 on Google for "run training plans".

    Pricing PDF Plans Free forever; None to Run App Free 7-day trial

    Strengths Offers free PDF running plans from walking to half marathon, designed by a certified coach with a slower, gentler progression and integrated strength routines to prevent injury. Includes audio coaching and automatic tracking in the app.

    Weaknesses The cost of the app after the 7-day trial is not specified, making long-term access to advanced features and support unclear.

    ~24,860 organic visits a month (estimate)

    nonetorun.com · from live Google results · verified Aug 18

    source page
  • #8Trainingpeaks

    Ranks #8 on Google for "run training plans".

    Pricing Premium $19.95/month, $11.25/month billed annually ($134.99/year); BRONZE $149/Month; SILVER $229/Month; GOLD $359/Month

    Strengths Offers structured workouts that automatically sync with compatible devices and guide users in real time. Provides various tools for planning, analyzing, and tracking fitness, including cross-training and indoor training support.

    Weaknesses Training plans and personal coaches are not included with the Premium subscription, requiring additional purchases. The pricing structure is complex with separate tiers for the app and coaching packages.

    ~201,436 organic visits a month (estimate)

    trainingpeaks.com · from live Google results · verified Aug 18

    source page
Also ranking, but not products (20)

Roundups, review posts, explainers and store pages. They compete for the search, not for the job — they don't count against the competition gap.

Likely business model

willingness to pay 45/100

Freemium consumer app

Broad consumer intent: get them using it free, charge for volume and polish.

How rivals make money 11 competitors read: 4 on subscriptions, 0 one-time, 6 free. Plans seen: Free · Subscribe to Runna; Canada Subscribers pay CA$14.99/month or CA$99.99/year; Family Plan CA$169.99/year; Strava + Runna Plan CA$199.99/year · PDF Plans Free forever; None to Run App Free 7-day trial

Price to test · from real competitor pricing

$13–$27/mo

Median of 1 competitor pricing page we could read ($20/mo), widened either side.

What to charge for

Free core, paid depth. Gate history, exports and power features rather than the first-run experience — the exact free limit is something you tune after launch, not something this data can tell you.

What this data can't tell you

  • · Only 1 published price backs this band, so expect to move it after launch.

Willingness-to-pay evidence

  • 11 competitors read: 4 on subscriptions, 0 one-time, 6 free. Plans seen: Free · Subscribe to Runna; Canada Subscribers pay CA$14.99/month or CA$99.99/year; Family Plan CA$169.99/year; Strava + Runna Plan CA$199.99/year · PDF Plans Free forever; None to Run App Free 7-day trial
  • Advertisers pay $4.25 a click for this intent — real money already chases it.
  • Competitors charge a median of $20/mo, from 1 pricing pages read.
  • 16% of the 25-keyword cluster is commercial-intent wording (best, app, pricing, alternative).
  • Ad competition 0.13 — few advertisers fighting for it.

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